The Reasons Saudi Investment Hasn't Turned Newcastle into Championship Contenders

Eddie Howe isn't typically given to dramatics or grand media statements. Based on his standards, his press conference following Sunday’s 3-1 defeat counts as a furious outburst. His side scored first but the opposition were ahead by the interval, as well as striking the woodwork and having a penalty revoked by VAR, leading Howe to make a triple change at the half-time.

“That was the frustrating thing about the first half,” the coach stated. “I almost could have taken anyone off and I think this indicated of our performance level in that moment during the match and it’s very, very rare for me to feel that way. In fact, I don’t think I have since I’ve been head coach of the club, so I felt the squad required some shaking up at half-time. This explains why I made those decisions.”

Three key players all came off at the interval and the team managed to steady somewhat in the latter period, without ever appearing like they might fight back into the contest against an opponent that had secured just a single victory of their previous nine league matches. Given the congestion the centre of the table currently is, with a mere three-point gap dividing third from 11th, and nine points between second and 17th, a sequence of twelve points from 10 games has not left the Magpies adrift but, similarly, they cannot end the campaign in 13th.

The Issue of Expectations

The problem partially is one of perception. With the Saudi PIF, Newcastle possess the wealthiest owners in the globe. The assumption at the time the Saudi fund acquired a majority stake of the team in 2021 was that it would have a game-changing impact, similar to the former Chelsea owner had at Chelsea or the City Group did at the Etihad. The difference is that those two investors assumed control before the introduction of financial fair play regulations (and the ongoing allegations against City relate to whether they breached those guidelines once they were in place).

Financial restrictions restrict the capacity of owners, however rich, to spend money on their squads and so in that sense probably would have slowed every Middle Eastern attempt to raise Newcastle to the standard of Manchester City. However it wasn't necessary for Newcastle’s expenditure to have been quite as cautious as it has been; they might have invested further and remained within the limit – or just accepted a relatively meagre Uefa penalty given their big problem is more with the European than the Premier League regulation.

Infrastructure Investment and Financial Regulations

Additionally, stadium development is exempted from PSR assessments; the easiest method to increase revenue to generate more PSR headroom would be to extend or redevelop the stadium. Considering the location of St James’ Park, with protected structures on two sides, in reality that likely means building an entirely new stadium. There was talk in March of possibly undertaking the nearby relocation to a local park – resistance from community organizations might have been overcome with a promise to build a new park on the existing stadium site – but there has been any progress on that plan. There has occurred substantial cutbacks from the PIF on a range of initiatives as it shifts focus on domestic affairs; the attitude to the football club appears completely in keeping with that strategic shift.

The Alexander Isak Situation

The star striker saga was born of that conflict. A bolder management might have portrayed his transfer as necessary to release capital for further spending; instead there was a unsuccessful effort to retain him. That meant Newcastle began the season amidst a sense of disappointment even with the acquisitions of Woltemade, Yoane Wissa, Jacob Ramsey, Malick Thiaw and Anthony Elanga. The opening was mixed: a single victory in their first six fixtures.

But it seemed a turning point had been turned. They secured five in six before the weekend, a run that featured demolitions of Union Saint-Gilloise and a Portuguese club in the European competition. This explains the performance against the Hammers was such a shock. The issue perhaps is that the team's approach is very aggressive, high-energy; a slight drop-off in intensity can have profound effects. Maybe the pressure of Premier League, European and Carabao Cup competition, five fixtures in 15 days, had taken its toll. Woltemade started each of those matches and looked particularly weary.

The Nature of Modern Soccer

That’s the nature of today's the sport. Coaches must be ready to make changes. The manager has been unlucky that the forward's injury has left him lacking forward choices but, no matter how valid the reasons, Sunday’s performance was unacceptable –particularly following taking the lead at a ground ready to turn on its home team.

The Newcastle boss will wish it was merely a temporary setback, an off-day when everybody is off-colour simultaneously, but if the Magpies are to secure the European competition in the future, not to mention one day mount an genuine title challenge, they must not be as unreliable as this.